The decline in oil prices since the second half of 2014 has caused domestic and foreign oil companies to compress their upstream profits and reduce their investment in exploration and development, which has put unconventional oil and gas exploration and development in an embarrassing position.

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the development speed and development model of unconventional oil and gas development should be formulated is crucial to the future of the industry. The current shale gas is testing the original intention and strength of industry participants.

Responding to the challenge of low oil prices

"Unconventional oil and gas is the main field of oil and gas exploration today and in the future, and it is in an important position in the current oil and gas exploration, and it is an energy source with large-scale development conditions and commercial development prospects. On December 10, 2015, at the 2015 Unconventional Oil and Gas Partner Summit and the Annual Meeting of the Unconventional Oil and Gas Industry Alliance, Zhang Dawei, director of the Mineral Resources Reserve Review Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources, pointed out.

Unconventional oil and gas resources such as shale gas and coalbed methane, which are abundant in reserves, are generally regarded as the key links to promote the adjustment and upgrading of China's energy production and consumption structure. However, since the second half of 2014, international oil prices have experienced a "free fall" decline, and they have been "cut in half" in only half a year. This also casts a shadow over the prospects for the development of unconventional oil and gas resources.

China's unconventional oil and gas industry, which has a heavy responsibility, is the only way to cope with the challenges of reducing costs, improving production capacity and efficiency, seizing unconventional opportunities under the new pattern, and achieving scientific, efficient and sustainable development in the face of low oil prices and imperfect technical reserves for the development of unconventional oil and gas resources.

"The most direct way for foreign companies to reduce costs is to lay off employees and cut non-core projects, and the biggest incentive to do so is to ensure shareholder returns. Chen Weidong, former chief energy researcher at China National Offshore Oil Corporation, said, "But this is not suitable for China's state-owned enterprises." ”

The method adopted by Chinese enterprises is to rely on technological progress and efficient management to achieve low-cost sustainable development, and improve the feasibility, safety and environmental protection of mining through experimental pilots. As one of the important innovation platforms approved by the Ministry of Science and Technology, the State Key Laboratory of Shale Oil and Gas Enrichment Mechanism and Effective Development has recently settled in Sinopec.

This is the first key laboratory of Sinopec upstream to enter the "national team", and it also shows that the unconventional oil and gas represented by shale gas shoulders the expectations of the industry: after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, the reform of state-owned enterprises and the reform of the oil and gas system have become the focus of much attention, and unconventional oil and gas may become the driving force of reform or even a breakthrough in reform.

Shale gas and coalbed methane have broad prospects

Under the background of low oil prices, shale gas and coalbed methane have become the objects of much attention in the field of unconventional oil and gas.

It is understood that at present, there are nearly 200 shale gas production wells in China, with proven shale gas geological reserves of about 540 billion cubic meters, with an output of 1.25 billion cubic meters in 2014 and 2.3 billion cubic meters of gas in 2015 (as of September 2015), and it is expected that China's shale gas production in 2015 will be about 4.5 billion cubic meters.

Recently, the Oil and Gas Reserves Review Office of the Ministry of Land and Resources of the People's Republic of China reviewed the proven reserves of Jiaoye 4-Jiaoye 5 well area in Jiaoshiba block of Sinopec Fuling shale gas field, and determined that the new proven reserves of Jiaoshiba block in Fuling shale gas field were 273.9 billion cubic meters, and China's first large-scale shale gas field, Fuling shale gas field, became the largest shale gas field in the world except North America.

"During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, shale gas should become one of the most important supplementary resources for clean gas and a test field for promoting comprehensive and deepening reform in the oil and gas field. Guo Jiaofeng, a researcher at the Institute of Resources and Environmental Policy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said.

"The composition of shale gas is comparable to that of conventional natural gas, and it has the advantages of clean, efficient, safe, convenient transportation and the potential for large-scale development, and has the resource base to become the main clean energy in the future. "Shale gas should become an important choice for China's energy production and consumption revolution and medium- and long-term energy strategic decision-making." ”

The rapid rise of coalbed methane is due to the need for safety.

Sun Chao, director of the Clean Energy Center of the Coal Information Research Institute, said that China is the world's largest coal producer, and gas accidents are the biggest threat to coal mine safety. Since 2005, China has decided to launch a tough battle against gas and provide 3 billion yuan of national debt funds every year for the technical transformation of coal mine safety, and the number of gas explosion accidents and deaths has dropped significantly. However, at present, the situation of coal mine safety production in the country is still grim. "In order to effectively reduce coal mine accidents and vigorously develop the use of clean energy, strengthening coalbed methane extraction is the most important measure and means. Sun Chao said.

In recent years, China has made major breakthroughs in the development and utilization of coalbed methane, which has become a hot field for scientific research and investment and development. "With the increase in resource depletion caused by high-intensity coal mining and the advancement of coal mine rectification and closure, the gas extraction and utilization of scrapped coal mines will be a hot spot for gas extraction and utilization during China's 13th Five-Year Plan period. Sun Chao predicted.

In fact, relevant policies on coal mine safety and coalbed methane development and utilization have been promulgated, providing good opportunities for investment and technical cooperation for domestic and foreign companies and international institutions. Sun Chao said.

Enterprises should hold on to the search for opportunities

In order to realize the development prospects, Zhang Dawei suggested that the government "should establish a special shale gas pilot zone in the future". Its overall goal is to take 2017 as the first year, and use five years to initially form an operating mechanism and system for benign interaction in the special zone, and build the special zone into a demonstration area for shale gas exploration, development and utilization, technology and equipment manufacturing industry, infrastructure construction and environmental protection, mechanism and policy system, etc., and become the main shale gas production area, technological innovation research area, equipment manufacturing gathering area, shale gas comprehensive utilization business area, and oil and gas reform pilot area.

Zhang Dawei also said that China is rich in tight gas resources, and tight gas production accounts for nearly 1/3 of the country's total natural gas production. However, due to the low production of a single well, the high development cost and the poor economic efficiency, most of the tight gas reserves have not been effectively utilized. "In terms of resource management, government authorities and oil companies should treat tight gas as conventional natural gas and treat it equally. ”

Since tight gas is not an independent mineral and the current situation is embarrassing, Zhang Dawei suggested that tight oil and gas should be classified as unconventional oil and gas, and relevant standards should be formulated, such as tight oil and gas reserves estimation specifications, reserves report preparation specifications, and technical requirements for research on the economic significance of tight gas development.

When putting forward the "13th Five-Year Plan" proposal for specific enterprises, Chen Weidong believes that innovation should conform to the company's own advantages, "if you invest in the policy to encourage the industry, it is like a thousand troops crossing a single-plank bridge, and the risk is too great."

Open source and reduce expenditure is Guo Jiaofeng's suggestion. He took PetroChina Xinjiang Sales Co., Ltd. to launch the "Internet + Energy" to complete the online transaction of refined oil products as an example, emphasizing that "enterprises should find their own profit model, consider the upstream, midstream and downstream as a whole, and actively attract various financing, which is the ability and skill to survive." ”

On the other hand, government promotion is indispensable. "If the oil and gas reform and the power reform are combined, and the oil and gas microgrid is established with reference to the microgrid project policy, the shale gas development in the eastern region can be combined with wind and solar energy to develop wind, solar, gas and heat distributed energy resources. Guo Jiaofeng said frankly that this still needs to be explored by various enterprises for a long time.

Zhang Dawei hopes that enterprises will recognize the situation and strengthen their confidence, "holding on to it will have development opportunities, and seeking opportunities is to wait for favorable policies."